Context

Politics and the NHS

How governments, budgets and policy shifts line up against the real waiting-list numbers. Everything below is drawn from official sources: the chart from NHS England RTT statistics, the events from public records.

Waiting now
7.12M
as of Feb 2026
Change since Labour took office
-498k
July 2024 onwards
Peak on record
7.75M
Aug 2023
Earliest data shown
3.35M
Feb 2016

NHS England waiting list, annotated

Total people waiting for treatment across all departments, with key political and NHS events marked. Hover any marker on the chart for the event name.

Show: Overlay:

Sources: NHS England RTT statistics (waiting list); ONS long-term international migration (net-migration overlay, rolling 12-month total); Home Office irregular-migration statistics (small-boat overlay, rolling 12-month total). Migration figures are subject to revision. Each numbered marker on the chart matches the same number in the timeline below.

Is there a statistical link?

Both the waiting list and immigration figures have been climbing since 2013, so comparing the raw totals would always show a big link, even if there was not really one. The fair test is to look at how much each one changed from the same month a year earlier, and see whether those changes line up. We also give immigration a head start of up to a year, in case the waiting list only reacts after a delay.

Net migration (ONS), year to year
+0.56
Moderate link, happening at the same time, based on 107 overlapping months. If you compare the raw totals instead, the number jumps to +0.90, but that is mostly just the shared upward drift.
Small-boat crossings (Home Office), year to year
+0.56
Moderate link, happening at the same time, based on 73 overlapping months. Raw-total version: +0.94, again inflated by the common upward drift.

How to read this: a number close to zero means no link. A number close to +1 means the two tend to rise and fall together. A number close to −1 means they move in opposite directions. We use year-to-year change because it strips out the slow upward climb both series share. The raw-total number is shown only for contrast, because it is the kind of figure that gets quoted in headlines.

Timeline of events

Events relevant to NHS England waiting lists, newest first. Sources are linked where available. Use the filter chips above to narrow by category.

  1. November 2025Budget

    Autumn Budget 2025

    Rachel Reeves' second budget; NHS revenue baseline confirmed with further capital investment for diagnostic centres.

    gov.uk
  2. July 2025NHS

    Resident doctors' strike returns

    BMA resident doctors begin a new 5-day walkout after rejecting the latest pay offer; first industrial action under the Labour government.

  3. July 2025Policy

    10-Year Health Plan

    'Fit for the future': three shifts (hospital to community, analogue to digital, sickness to prevention).

    gov.uk
  4. March 2025Policy

    NHS England to be abolished

    Keir Starmer announces NHS England will be scrapped and its functions brought back into the Department of Health and Social Care, aiming to cut bureaucracy and save around £400m a year.

    gov.uk
  5. January 2025Policy

    Elective Reform Plan

    Government sets out plan to return to the 18-week target by 2029, including more community-based diagnostics.

    gov.uk
  6. October 2024Budget

    First Labour budget in 14 years

    Rachel Reeves announces £22.6bn real-terms increase for NHS day-to-day spending over two years.

    gov.uk
  7. September 2024NHS

    Resident doctors accept 22.3% pay deal

    BMA junior (now 'resident') doctors accept a multi-year pay award from the new Labour government, ending the 18-month dispute.

  8. September 2024Policy

    Darzi review published

    Lord Darzi's independent report describes the NHS as being 'in serious trouble' and sets baseline for Labour's 10-year plan.

    gov.uk
  9. July 2024Government

    Labour wins general election

    Keir Starmer becomes PM with a large majority. Wes Streeting appointed Health Secretary.

    gov.uk
  10. March 2024Budget

    Spring Budget 2024

    Hunt's final budget before the election announces a £3.4bn NHS productivity plan focused on tech and digitisation.

    gov.uk
  11. March 2023NHS

    Junior doctors' strike begins

    BMA junior doctors begin rolling industrial action that runs through 2024, with thousands of operations and appointments cancelled during walkouts.

  12. December 2022NHS

    RCN nurses' strike begins

    First UK-wide Royal College of Nursing strike action in its 106-year history.

    rcn.org.uk
  13. November 2022Budget

    Autumn Statement 2022

    Jeremy Hunt reverses most of the mini-budget and commits an extra £3.3bn a year to the NHS for 2023-24 and 2024-25.

    gov.uk
  14. October 2022Government

    Rishi Sunak becomes PM

    Succeeds Truss. Jeremy Hunt continues as Chancellor.

  15. September 2022Budget

    Mini-budget; market turmoil

    Kwasi Kwarteng's fiscal statement triggers bond sell-off and sterling drop. Bank of England intervenes.

  16. September 2022Government

    Liz Truss becomes PM

    Takes office after Boris Johnson resigns. 49-day premiership.

  17. February 2022NHS

    Elective Recovery Plan published

    Target: eliminate 2+ year waits by July 2022, 18-month waits by April 2023, 1-year waits by March 2025.

    england.nhs.uk
  18. September 2021Budget

    Health and Social Care Levy announced

    1.25pp National Insurance rise to fund NHS backlog recovery and social care. Later reversed in 2022.

    gov.uk
  19. March 2020NHS

    COVID-19: first UK lockdown

    Non-urgent elective care effectively paused nationally. The backlog begins building.

    gov.uk
  20. December 2019Government

    Conservative majority under Boris Johnson

    Manifesto pledges 50,000 more nurses and 40 new hospitals by 2030.

  21. July 2019Government

    Boris Johnson becomes PM

    Succeeds Theresa May as Conservative leader after the party's protracted Brexit crisis.

  22. January 2019Policy

    NHS Long Term Plan published

    Theresa May and Simon Stevens set out a 10-year strategy with a £20.5bn real-terms boost by 2023-24.

    longtermplan.nhs.uk
  23. June 2018NHS

    £20bn NHS 70th-birthday settlement

    Theresa May pledges a five-year, 3.4% real-terms funding uplift ahead of the NHS's 70th anniversary.

    gov.uk
  24. January 2018NHS

    Winter crisis: electives cancelled

    NHS England instructs hospitals to defer all non-urgent operations until the end of January as A&E pressure spikes.

    england.nhs.uk
  25. May 2017NHS

    WannaCry cyberattack hits NHS

    Ransomware locks NHS systems across at least 80 trusts; thousands of appointments and operations cancelled.

    nao.org.uk
  26. June 2016Economy

    UK votes to leave the EU

    Brexit vote. Sterling drops; debate about NHS funding (the '£350 million a week' claim) intensifies.

How to read this page

  • Correlation, not cause Events are listed alongside the numbers. Whether a change caused the data to move is for you to decide.
  • Data coverage Only events that fall inside our current data window are shown. Older events (e.g. pre-2022 coalition-era policy) are omitted until we backfill more history.
  • Not endorsed by anyone WaitRadar is independent. We are not aligned with any political party or NHS body.
Source: NHS England RTT statistics . about our methodology